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15-07 Ordinance
RECORD OF ORDINANCES Dayton Legal Blank, Inc Farm No 30043 "07 Ordinance No. Passed , 20 AN ORDINANCE ACCEPTING THE UPDATED ESTIMATED AVERAGE PER ACRE VALUE OF LAND FOR PARK FEES IN LIEU OF LAND DEDICATION. 1 1 WHEREAS, Section 152.086~C}~6} of the Dublin Codified Ordinances requires that an estimated average value of land per acre shall be established by Council based on the recommendation of a qualified land appraiser; WHEREAS, the estimated price per acre value provides a base forthe payment of the parkfee in lieu of a land dedication;and WHEREAS, the Continental Appraisal Company has completed their update of raw land transactions within the Dublin area and is recommending an average suggested price per acre consistent with the current value. NOW, THEREFO E, BE IT ORDAINED by the Council of the City of Dublin, State of Ohio, of the elected members concurring: Section 1. That the report of the Continental Appraisal Company is hereby accepted, estimating per acre value for raw fond at $41,504.00 within the City of Dublin, Ohio for use pursuant to the provisions of Chapter 53, Section 152.086~C}~6} of the Dublin Codified Ordinances, Section Z. That this estimated value per acre is consistent with the current per acre value, therefore the existing per acre value shall be retained for a period of two ~2}years, commencing with the effective date of this ordinance. Section 3. That this ordinance shall be effective at the earliest date permitked bylaw. Passed this ~ day of /~I Qv'~ , 2007. Mayor- Presiding Officer ATTEST: C~ ~ Clerk of Council I hereby certify that copies of this OrdinancelResolution were posted in the City of Dublin in accordance with Section 131,25 of the Ohio Revised Code. Depu lerk of Council, Dublin, Ohio Parks & Open Space 6555 Shier Rings Road, Dublin, Ohio 43016-5716 CITY QF DUBLIN Phone: 614-410-4700 * Fax: 614-761-6512 T4: Members of the Dublin City Council FRUM: Jane S. Brauti am, City Manager r-. g ~40~ JS DATE: February 28, 2007 INITIATED BY: Fred Hahn, Director of Parks & open Space RE: ordinance I5-07 -Park Land Fees ~- Z007 & 2008 Summary Attached you will find the City of Dublin Park Land Fee report from Continental Appraisal Company that details the recommended park land fee for the years 2007 & 2008. The establishment of this fee is detailed under Section 152.086, Part C, of the Subdivision Regulations for the City of Dublin, which stipulates that: "Estimate average value of land per acre shall be estimated every two years by resolution of Council based upon the recommendation of a qualified land appraiser retained by the village to research recent real estate transactions and provide Council with a suggested price per acre for raw land within the City." The suggested raw land value found in this report is $41,500.00 per acre, which is identical to the current value established for the years 2005-2006. The appraiser attributed the no net increase to the weak housing market, which in turn affects the value of land. This value, once approved, will be used by the City when it is determined that money in lieu of land for park land donation is in the best interest of the City. The complete analysis of current land value trends are contained in the attached report. Recommendation Staff has reviewed the appraisal document and found it to be complete and in order and is recommending adoption of Ordinance 15-07, retaining the raw land value of $41,500.00. CITY OF DUBLIN PARKLAND FEE Suggested Average ~Jnit PricelAcre Single Family Residential Development Land Park Fees ~n Lieu of Land Donation 'Iwo-Year Period (2007-2008) PREPARED FOR: Mr. Fred Hahn Director of grounds c~ Facilities City of Dublin X555 Shier Rings Road Dublin, OH 4316 AS OF: January 12, 2007 PREPARED BY: ~vhn M. ~Garvn~ MAI ~antinent~cl appraisal ~om~any .ill Schrdek ~va~, Suite 2(~2 Columbus, UH 43229 ~i o I~lublin ~_ .~r._ This map illustrates the current sprawl of the Dublin Corporate lines into the counties immediately adjacent to Northwest Franklin County. These areas have experienced some of the most recent development activity. a --~ ., E ~` ~ ~ 1 ; `. ,~"~ + t ` gg ~ i~ t~ , ~ '~ ~'~. ~ Y.rM ~ ~ f ~ ys ~e ~. . r.. Y:~_-~ r5 ' # :,~~^ m,.-,,.~......,.... 'III' ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~~ ~¢ .,s r.: ~ ~ -gin F~'' r ~.~ ;~ ~E~ :~ 1RF~py - NSF 1n;Ry "-~iR°O°~.....y f ,{f~ f ~.y w+.. e ~i~ y1t>S ~ 1 f~ f +~~'~ ,~~~ 15,5 i,k 4~e i i ` ~: F~ 6' .,'4` .~r. nn ......e. r F i 4 ~ F~: 1 £ n~~i ~~ ~ ~ .4 t C ~, ~ ~ S° i~ { ~ 'r~ # r ~,a""`° .4 ip ~~F E ] y~~ HHHH $y .P t ~ $3+} F ~~ ^ ~~ kgkg 75js. Y. ~Aep •3' 4'r'~ ~ 7 ~^-ti,.`"'5~,,,~ fix. J ~`; • ' :`~`"f`:~"-~~~ 1 ~~ r ....~~ ,. -Wt i ~ F .r ,v.,,,.r°~~ ~ {t ~ E h k ,~ ~ ! '~~ a € 7 E yY'} 1 ~~ ~~~L d ~ ~ {! ~, f '' .~ h i City of I3ublin ~or~arate Limits are Shaded in Green ~r.nrrur anr~~ ~i~m.iram~.r .....r.rrr~irrn.rwnn.. .rw.wrr~.w.ssr.r Continental Appraisal Company REAL ESTATE CONSULTANTS & APPRAISERS ~ ~ ~ ~ SC~rOC~ ~roa~ ~ Std ~o~ Columbus, Ohio 43~29~ Phone (614) 436-0200 Fax (614) 436-0215 February ZS, 2007 Mr. Fred Hahn Director of Grounds and Facilities City of Dublin X555 Shier Rings Road Dublin, C~H 4301 RE: Single-Family Development Land Study Suggested Unit Price per Acre of Raw Development Land Parkland Fees in Lieu of Land Dedication Time period: 2007 & 2008 Dear Mr. Hahn: INDIVIDUAL MEMBERSHIPS: APPRAISAL INSTITUTE AMERICAN SOCIETY OF REAL ESTATE COUNSELORS INTERNATIONAL RIG~IT-OF-WAY ASSOCIATION NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS OHIO ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS COLUMBUS BOARD OF REALTORS ~n accord with your request, ~ have completed an investigation and analysis of the Dublin market, regarding raw development land transactions, These data have been used to establish an average suggested price per acre for raw residential development land that is to be applicable for the two year time period (2007-2008}, therefore the estimated average unit price resulting from this analysis is prospective taking into consideration anticipated future market conditions and their effect on the overall average unit price for single-family development land. The intended use of this suggested unit land value is to establish the basis for the payment of the park fee in lieu of a land dedication, by a developer, at the time of plat approval, Based on my review of the City C}rdinance in Section 152,08, Part C of the Subdivision Regulations for the City of Dublin, it is my conclusion that the base acre value should be premised on the analysis of transactions of raw residential development land. The zoning classif cations of the market data used in this analysis include R, R-1, R1-B, PLR, and PUD, Properties with these zoning classifications consist of low density, single-family residential development land, which provide the lowest base unit, The proposed density of development is adjusted for in the formula for the park fee. Based on the conclusions set forth in the following report, it is our recommendation that the average r~ ~ acre of raw development land for the succeeding two years {2007-2008, from the date of this report, be established as: FOURTY ONE THOUSAND FIVE HUNDRED DOLLARS PER ACRE (41,500 /Acs) This unit value estimate represents an average unit value for single-family residential development land for the entire City of Dublin, to be used in the calculation for the payment of a parr fee in lieu of parkland dedication, by the developer. It should not be construed as an appraisal of any individual acre located within the City or used for valuation purposes, other than the stated purpose of this report. This report has been prepared in accord with the basic valuation principles and regulations of the Appraisal Institute and USPAP, I certify that I have no present nor contemplated future interest as it would relate to park land property and that my compensation is not contingent upon the result of this reported average unit value estimate. Thank you for the privilege of serving you in this matter. Respectfully submitted, C mental. ~ isal ~ m an 1 ~ Y John . Garvin; ~A~ _---__ __ __ f _ .~ State Certified +Gpeneral A ^ raiser #3 ~ 157'2 ~ pp ~a~le of ~'vnte~ts Title Page map - City of Dublin Letter of Transmittal Table of Contents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . P. . . . .~ a . . . .. . . - . e - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Certification ................. .......:............................................................ 1 Limiting Conditions .................................................. . . . . ......... . ....... . . .... 2 Purpose, Intended Use of Analysis ............................................................ 4 .................:........ Scope of the Analyses ............ . ........ . .. . .................. . ........................... . ... ..................................................... 4 Definition of Market Value ........................... . ........ . ... . ......................... ... 5 Market Analysis ~Demographics~ ....... . ......................... . .......... . .... . ............ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . s 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . .. . . . . . . Average Unit Price Analysis ................................................................... ...................... ......... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 ...................................................... . Comparative Analysis .. . ............... . . ................................. . ......... . ... . ...... 18 Regression Analysis ............................................................................ ~ 18 Market Data Summary Sheets ......................... . .. . ......... . .. . ............... . ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b 20 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . .. . . . . . . Correlation and Conclusion ............. . ............. . ....... . ..................... . .. .... . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 ................................................................................................................................. Appraiser Qualifications ......... . ..... . .. . . . ................ . .............. . ........ . .. . ....... ...................................................... 26 Appraiser Disclosure Statement .. . .. . ... . . . .. . .................................... . ........ . .. ' ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... d.....,.... 27 ,.,,.,......,..,.,.,.....................,...,......., n r~n~hTn n . Record of Ordznances ........................................................................... 28 Continental Appraisal Company ~ERTIFICAT~4N The undersigned hereby certify that, except as otherwise noted in the appraisal report: ~ ~ } The statements of fact contained in this report are true and correct. ~2} The reported analyses, opinions, and conclusions are limited only by the reported assumptions and limiting conditions, and are our personal, unbiased professional analyses, opinions, and conclusions, ~3~ I have no present or prospective interest in the property that is the subject of this report and we have no personal interest or bias with respect to the parties involved. {4~ Ivly compensation is not contingent upon the reporting of a predetermined value or direction in value that favors the cause of the client, the amount of the value estimate, the attainment of a stipulated result, or the occurrence of a subsequent event. { 5 } My analyses, opinions, and conclusions were developed, and this report has been prepared, inconformity with the ~ ~ the Uniform Standards of Professional Practice as promulgated by the Appraisal Subcommittee of the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council and the Appraisal Foundation; and Z}the Code of Professional Ethics and the Standards of Professional Practice of the Appraisal Institute, and is subj ect to the requirements of the Appraisal Institute relating to review by its duly authorized representatives. {6~ A personal inspection ofthe Dublin area and all sales data was made by the undersigned appraiser. ?~ No one provided significant professional assistance to the persons signing this report. 8 ~ The Appraisal Institute conducts a voluntary program of continuing education, for its designated members. John M. Garvin, MAI is currently certified under this program. ~~~ I do not authorize out-of context quoting from or partial reprints of this appraisal report. ~ 10} I certify that this appraisal assignment was not based on a requested minimum valuation or specification valuation for approval of a loan. The estimated average unit value as shown elsewhere in this report for; Suggested Unit PricelAcre of Single Family Development PROPERTY; . . Land In Lieu of Donation - City of Dublin, AS OF; $41,~OOIAcre 2007 through 2008 Dublin Park Land Value 2007f2008 SUGGESTED UNIT PRICEIAC: Continental.App~aisal Company LIMITING C~NDITI4NS The Certificate of Appraisal and report hereto attached are made expressly subject to the conditions and stipulations following: No responsibility is assumed by the appraiser for matters that are legal in nature, nor is any opinion on the title rendered herewith. This appraisal assumed good title. Any liens or encumbrances, which may now exist, have been disregarded and the property has been appraised as though no delinquency in the payment of general taxes or special assessments exists, and as though free of indebtedness unless otherwise noted. Information, estimates, and opinions contained in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable and believed to be true and correct; however, the a raiser can assume no pp responsibility for accuracy. No single item of information was completely relied upon to the exclusion of the other information and all data was analyzed within the framework of judgment, knowledge and experience of the real estate appraiser. The physical condition of the improvements described herein was based on visual inspection, No liability is assumed for the soundness of members, equipment or sail conditions, since no engineering tests were made. Unless otherwise stated in this report, the existence of hazardous substances or other environmental conditions were not called to the attention of nor did the appraiser become aware of such conditions during the appraiser"s inspection. This includes, without limitation, asbestos, polychlorinated biphenyls, petroleum leakage, agricultural chemicals, industrial chemicals, or other materials, which have or may be deemed to be hazardous or toxic by EPA. The appraiser has no knowledge of the existence of such materials on or in the property unless otherwise stat- ed. The appraiser is not qualified to test for such substances or conditions. If the presence of or proximity to hazardous substances or materials or environmental conditions may affect the value of the property, the value estimate is predicated upon the assumption that no such condi- tion exists on or in the property or in proximity thereto that would cause a lass in value. No responsibility is assumed for any such conditions, or for any expertise or engineering knowledge required to discover them, The appraiser shall not be required to give testimony or appear in court by reason of this appraisal with reference to the property herein described, unless prior arrangements have been made, The values for land and improvements as contained within the report are constituent parts of the total value report, and neither is to be used in making a summation appraisal by combination with values created by another appraiser. Either is invalidated if soused. Neither all nor any part of the contents of this report, relating to value, the identity of the appraiser or Continental Appraisal, or reference to the Appraisal Institute, the MAI or SRA designations, may be conveyed to the public through advertising media, public relations media, news media, sales media, or any other public means of communication, nor may the same be used for any purpose by any but the applicant without the previously written consent of the appraiser,~and in any event, only in its entirety. Dublin Park Land Value 2007/2005 2 Continental A~~raisal Company ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSIONS Dublin Park Land Value 2007/2008 Continental Appraisal Company PURPQSE, INTENDED USE AND SCOPE QF ANALYSIS The purpose of this analysis is to provide an update of the estimated average prospective unit price per acre estimate, for raw development land, applicable far property situated in the City of Dublin. This estimate is to be effective for the two year period from January 2007 through December 2008, as specified by City Ordinance. The intended use of this prospective average price per acre estimate is to calculate the value of the land donation set forth by the park fee, identified in Section 152.08, Part C of the Subdivision Regulations for the City of Dublin. The relevant requirements of this section of the Cade, which form the basis of this report, are outlined as follows: TtPm ~h "Estimated Average Value of Land per Acre shalt be estimated every two years by resolution of Council based upon the recommendation of a quail red land appraiser retained by the pillage to research real estate transactions and provide council with a suggested price per acre for raw land within the City " A developer has the option of paying a park fee in lieu of land dedication at the time of final plat approval. The formula used to determine the per unit park fee considers: the site's gross area, the total number of dwelling units, the calculated required land area dedication, and the estimated average value of land per acre in the City of Dublin, This formula calculates both the value of the required parkland donation and the per unit park fee. For the reader's convenience, a copy of Section I5Z.086, open Space Requirements, under Subdivision Regulations for the City of Dublin, is provided as an exhibit in the Addenda. The scope of this assignment includes a review of historical average unit price estimates from past years that were prepared under the same premise as this current analysis, including the supporting real estate bland} transactions that were appropriately considered in these prior analyses. A review of the most recent real estate bland} transactions were also assembled, reviewed and considered in this analysis. This provides the basis from a historical and current perspective from which the future two year period maybe estimated. Although this analysis considers the past and present market conditions from which an estimated unit price could be estimated for the following two years, the current market trends and anticipated future market trends are equally important. In summary, this analysis provides an estimate of the average unit price of raw development land in the city of Dublin, which is applicable for the next two years X2007 & 240$}. The estimate is based on a review of historical trends, in conjunction with current and anticipated future trends. The market data considered in this analysis is in complete compliance with the following definition of Market Value. Dublin Park Land Value 20071200$ 4 Continental Appt~aisal Company DEFINITION aF MARKET VALUE The market data considered in this analysis have a highest and best use for single~family residential development, For the purpose of this report, market value is defined as follows: MARKET VALUE is the mast probable price, which a property should bring in a competitive and open market under all conditions requisite to a fair sale, the buyer and seller each acting prudently and knowledgeably, and assuming the price is not affected by undue stimulus. , Implicit in this definition is the consummation of a sale as of a specified date and the passing of title from seller to buyer under conditions whereby: 1. Buyer and seller are typically motivated; 2. Bath parties are well informed or well advised, and acting in what they consider their best interests; 3. A reasonable time is allowed for exposure in the open market; 4. Payment is made in terms of cash in United States dollars or in terms of financial arrangements comparable thereto; and 5. The price represents the normal consideration for the property sold unaffected by special or creative f nancing or sales concessions granted by anyone associated with the sale. Comparable sales compliance with the items identified as # 1 through #5 above are alI necessary if the purpose of appraisal is to estimate the market value of a property. Item # 1 is in reference to the motivation involved in the sale. Both buyer and seller must be typically mativa~ted, which implies that market forces dictate the sale price paid for a property and not a motivation that is not reflective of market conditions, such as a distressed sale. This is in reference directly to the condition under which a property transfers. Item #2 is in reference to the fact that both parties involved in the sales transaction were knowledgeable of market conditions, and negotiated to an agreeable market sales price. Item #3 is in reference to the amount of time the sale was exposed on the open market before the consummation of a sale. This ensures that property consideration is given to the time that market forces had to influence the sale price. Item #4 addresses the fact that comparable sales used in an analysis resulting in a market value estimate must be in terms of cash or its equivalent, Financing can influence the price paid for a property, however, it can not influence the properties value. Item #5 is directly tied to Item #4 in that financing can not affect the value indicated by the sale price of a comparable sale. A market value estimate is not estimated for a specif c property in this report. The definition of Market Value provides the standard conditions in which the market data used in this analysis transferred. The sales data considered in this analysis represent the negotiated arms length transactions of each property's fee simple estate, in terms equivalent to cash. Dublin Park Land Value 2007/2008 5 Continental ~4pp~aisal Company MARKET ANALYSIS & CONCLUSIONS The scope of this assignment consists of assembling and analyzing pertinent market data to be used in developing an average unit price per acre, far residential development land, in the City of Dublin, as set forth under ordinance No. 1109,02~c~~6~ Park Fee}. The primary parameters for land sales considered in this analysis include: 1. Transfer of single family raw development land situated in the City of Dublin 2. Transfer of fee simple estate 3. Transfer on a cash equivalent basis 4. Arm's length, market transactions 5, Sales data included consist of properties that transferred subsequent to the last update report [February 2005]. Consideration was also given to historical data to analyze trends in the average unit price per acre, in the Dublin submarket. The market data included in the database had a highest and best use for future single-family development, at the time of transfer, and are considered raw residential land sales. Raw residential development land is defined as acreage tracts suitable for residential development that have not been influenced by external forces relating to the development process, such as, engineering, platting, or infrastructure improvement. Any of the market data considered in this analysis has good physical utility for residential development, The primary legal consideration was that the sales used are zoned for low-density residential, no multi-family land sales were included in the data set. Considering the established parameters for market data, and that the purpose of this report is to estimate an average unit price per acre applicable for raw development land that is located in the city of Dublin, no adjustments were made to the market data However, consideration was given to the anticipated market conditions that would impact residential development land value over the 2-year projection period. The value of real property [raw development lands reflects and is affected by the interaction of four basic forces that influence human activity, which are outlined below. A discussion of the most pertinent value influencing factors is set forth in the following discussion. l . ~ Social Trends -which primarily relate to population characteristics, but also Include attitudes toward education and lifestyle options. These factors directly impact demand, 2. Economic Forces -primarily relate to the effective purchasing power of the general population, which is affected by employment and wage levels. Economic forces also affect demand, in that demand that is supported by purchasing power results in ,, effective demand, which is the type of demand considered by the market. 3. ~ Governmental Forces -These relate to the political and legal activities at all levels of government, which impact property values. 4. Environmental Forces -primarily consist of the desirability of the surrounding area, in this case the Dublin submarket. 6 Continental appraisal Company The city of Dublin is situated in the central Dhio real estate market. The economic value of properties located within its boarders is influenced by the regional interaction of the social trends, economic circumstances, governmental controls, and environmental conditions that make up the Columbus Metropolitan Statistical Area {MSA}. The corporate limits of Dublin extend into three counties that include; Delaware County shaded green, Franklin County shaded blue}, and Union County shaded yellow. The red dot signifies the approximate location of Dublin in each respective county. The shaded area on the map to the right illustrates the location of Delaware, Franklin and Union Counties w~thln the State of Dhio. The reap presented below, .illustrates the location of the City of Dublin within the three counties. Lfl~CATIflN MAP ~- ~i of Dublin Continental Appraisal Company The following is an analysis of the trend in the U~ Census population, from 1980 to 2000. The parameters of the search area for the data included the corporate limits of the City of Dublin, as well as Franklin County, Delaware County and Union County. This data is presented as follows: City of Dubin Population Statistics U ~ [;ensus ~ 1 ~~U to ~U~U Cit 1.980 1 9 1980-2000 Projection y 9 0 2000 Percent Change 200b Dublin 3,855 16,366 31,390 714,3°/n 38,909 Count y 1980 1990 2000 1980-2000 Percent Chan a Projection 200~G Franklin 869,132 961,437 1,068,978 22.9% 1,137,441 Delaware 53,840 66,929 109,989 104.3°/a 136,30b Union 29,536 31,969 40,909 38.5°/a 45,103 A review of the U,S. Census Data indicated a significant increase in population ~ ~ occurred in the city of Dublin, ~~~.~ from 1980 to 1990, of 324.5%. The total ercent ~~~~~ p change was reduced over the ~~ ~. e~ r~t~ subsequent 10-year period ~.~ 1990 - 2000 to a 91..x°/o ~1~~-19~ ~ ~ , ~~~.a increase in population, while ~ ~ ~~~'~~~~ , C~.C the city of Dublin has 0~~-~~ ~~~~~-~0~~ .f experienced significant and continued o ulation rowth~ _ ~~-~~~~ pp g a ~ ~ Franklin, Delaware and Union ~ ~ ~ County have also experienced `~ ~ population growth from 1 }~~- 2000. Delaware County has been the fastest growing county in the state of Chio for many years. The majority of growth is in the southern part of the county, which is directly influenced by its proximity to Franklin County. Union County has been ranked as the third fastest growing county in Dhio, Tt experienced a 28°/o increase in population in the past decade. The general pattern of growth for Fr~.nklin County has historically been in the n©rthlnorthwest~Columbus, Dublin and warthington area, Compared to both Delaware and Union Counties, Franklin County experienced the least population growth from 1980-2000. The bar graph above illustrates the change in population growth f©r the City of Dublin, Franklin County, Delaware County and Union County from 1950 to 1990,1990 to 2000, and 2000 to 2006. 8 Continental.~pp~aisal Company The following chart considers this data, and projects both population estimates and the number of total households into the future. ~ ~u~b~~n ~~a zooo Proect~on Prvj~cton % ~`hange °I° Change 2 OOG :' X011 X000 200 2~0~'2011 Total Population 16,366 31,390 38,909 43,133 24% 11% Total Households 5,866 11,209 ~ 13,820 15,810 23% 14% The subject submarket has demonstrated a historical trend of growth in both population and households. Although the population growth trend has slowed over the years, it is anticipated to remain steady, Growth in population is a primary demand generator for housing. Therefore, based on the historical and projected growth in population, demand for residential development land is expected to remain steady in to the foreseeable future, and is anticipated to follow the general real estate cycle that is established in the overall central Ohio market. The projections indicated in the chart above would assume astraight-line increase in demand, which is typically something other than how markets actually operate. This provides a measure of expected future events based on historical and current market conditions. ~~~ ~~ ~ne~n~ fiat Year Dublin State of ~hxo United States 2000 1.9% 4.0% 4.0% 2001, 2.1 % 4.4% 4.8% 2002 ~ 3.0% 5.7% 5.8% 2003 3.8% s 6.2% 6.0% .................................. 2004 . ............................................. 3.7% ................................................................................................................................... 6.2% 5.6% 2005 3.6% 5.9% 5.1 Historical unemployment rates for the City of Dublin are compared to the State of Ohio and the United States are listed in the chart to the left.. The labor force and employment conditions in Dublin, when compared to the State and National economics statistics, indicates a trend of continued growth in employment, and illustrates the economic strength of Dublin, from an employment standpoint, 9 Continental ~4ppraisal Company In addition to labor force statistics, another factor that influences the value of real estate in a particular market is the abilit to a of the market participates. For this reason, it was necessary to review Household Income levels. The Average Household and Per Capita Income for the population in the City of Dublin was summarized and reviewed. The summarized data is presented as follows: The data summarized in the preceding chart indicates that the historic, estimated and projected household income characteristics for the subject submarket area has and will continue to increase over time. These favorable trends contribute to an anticipated continued demand far residential development land in the foreseeable future. As previously mentioned, favorable population trends and economic conditions affect potential demand for residential development land, however, market forces from outside the Dublin area also impact such demand and must be considered in this analysis. overall Market Condition Assessment - In the preceding section of this report, historical statistical data compiled from public records was assembled and analyzed. This data was used to forecast anticipated market demand into the future, resulting in a favorable projection and outlook. These projections are anticipated to accurately represent market conditions in the subject area "in the long run". As stated earlier, the projections are premised on a trend line analysis, that forecasts anticipated market conditions into the foreseeable future, on a straight-line basis. This methodology forecasts trends over an extended period of time, and do not recognize the ups and downs that are generally Inherent in the real estate market, or business cycle that directly impacts the demand for real estate development. 10 Continental Appraisal ~Campany As previously stated, the purpose of this analysis is to provide an estimated average unit price per acre estimate, for raw single-family residential development land, applicable for property situated in the City of Dublin, This estimate is to be effective for the two year period from January 2047 through December 2008, as specified by City ordinance. Considering the time period over which the estimated unit price is to be effective, it is necessary to consider the market conditions specifically for single-family housing market. As of the date 4f this report, the national housing market was well into a contraction period. In January, and into the first quarter of 2406, market conditions were in a transitional phase. Market indicators as of January ~~~~ indicated stable market conditions, whereby anticipated demand for future development was expected to mirror demand and development trends of recent years. The demand for single-family homes remained consistent through 2445. This is evidenced by the following chart produced by the National Association of Realtors. The chart on the right graphs the increased supply of homes on the market from September 2445 through August 2406. the capital letters ~el~ow each bar represents each respective month over this 12-month period. Interest rates remained at 45-year lows in 2445, although by the end of the year they were starting to tick upwards. Still, the cast of borrowing was at historically low levels. Inflation also remained under control, and the Federal Reserve continued its measured approach to interest rates. The graph indicates that the supply of available homes remained consistent through January 2046, At this point in time, supply began to increase due to reduced ~ demand for single-family housing. This upward trend begins in January 2006 and continues through August 2006. L ~,J!,"~ ~(~~ ~~~~ f~ I~ ~ III .iq~ ~ ~ ~F The graph presented above indicates an upward swing in the supply of existing homes that were offered°tfor sale on the market, at the time the survey was made, between September 2045 and M August 2446. This data set indicates that this was the time frame in which the housing market became soft. Additional data was reviewed concerning the Pending Home Sales Index, which is also produced by the National Association of Realtors. 1~ Continental A~p~aisal Com,~an~ The following is a review of the Fending dome Sales Index, This is produced by and based on research made by the National Association of Realtors {I~~R}, This is an indicator ©f housing activity on a national and regional basis, The index is derived from pending sales of existing harries, A sale is pending when the contract has been signed and the transaction has not closed, An index of 100 is equal to the average of contract activity during 2001 first year examined}, ~.~. ~'~~~d~ra ~art~~ ~S~cl~s ~t~~~~~ P'l~ s T ~,lllt F I,;Illf ~ ~r~ ,7C~1~ l~l~~~.~c ~~ iti'~~I~~ .?13t~~ 4~r'~ ~~~t~ ~~~}~~i~~~ 1~`~~,'~~ tl~l~ ~~~~ ~ ?~ 10",~ 1~~1.0 1D9.8 10".~ 110.0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~{~ 1?0,9 1t~.7 118.6 12G,8 12'.9 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ?~~ 124.=1 1t~8,6 110.6 134.9 128.' ~ ~ ~ ~ ~.517i~~11y.4~~jitSt~c.~ ~it]tll~t`i~ l~~te "ti~fl~ ts~~~11y ~~~~5#~'c1 200 t 126,3 106.9 118.1 137.3 132.7 121,8 105.0 115.E 120.7 1Z9.~? j; Cat 123.5 101..7 113.? 135.5 132,6 117.1 ~~.~ lOS.G 12'7.1 12?.~ { N~~F 120.7 '~~.~ 115.1 13:3.5 126.7 98.$ 76,9 90.8 107.4 110.7 l I~ec 117.6 94.4 107.8 135.5 118.0 76.8 57.6 65.9 91.6 80,1 .T~i7 118.6 101,0 114.3 129.4 120.0 99.4 $1,+ 90.4 110.1 106.4 X406 1~~7 11'i.6 107..3 114.6 129.5 110.2 107,2 96.4 103.4 116.8 1t~4.5 14~~ 116.1 112.9 106.3 1?7.6 111.1 134.5 132.8 123.6 146.2 129.3 111.9 1(16.,7 1D0.:3 129.7 100,2 128.6 125.8 113.6 151.7 106.2 I~1~~y 11~~.5 106,1 l(11,4 1?7.5 110.1 1:5.3 129.6 123.2 153,1 124,' ~t~tt 113.5 .~ 102.5 13[x.6 1(19,1 135.7 122.8 125.5 156.4 124.1 '~ Jt~l 105.6 9'.1 9:x.8 1`1.9 1t~3,2 116.6 97,3 103.7 1~~ _ :6 11?,~3 l ~t~ r 110.3 95.5 94.4 126..6 112.9 1?0,1 1(11."' 105.8 1:34.7 1?6.5 ,' t ~ 109.1 89.9 96.4 125.0 112.5 100.8 84,4 ~?l.2 11:x.6 103,1 i~ If#~r~ IDDiIt~: -~,,~~;`~0 -:~,~~0 ~.~~~0 -~,.~~~0 -~,~~f0 -~~.~~~0 -~~.QO~'0 °1~.~0~~! -~~.~OifiO -~~,00~0 ~~s, 1:~$t F~:il. -~~,~ ~0 -1.,9 ~a -~~.~ ,~{# -~,~1.0 -~..~ ~o -~~.~ ~o ~~.~ 10 ~~,~ ~0 ~~..~ ~o -~~.~ to ~, ~~2006 Nr~TIC~~'.4L ~s~~~IATI4N CAF REALTCIR~~ Regionally, the FHSI in the Midwest dropped 17,9% from January 2006 to July 2006. This is compared to the change nationally of -11 %, over the same time period, This is a market indicator that the subject market experienced downward pressure due to regional and national housing market trends from January 2006 to July 2006, It is noted that there was a slow decline from January 2006 to June 2006, and from June to July 2x06 there was a significant ~$,5%~ drop in the index, from 102.5 to 9~3 , $. The fallowin charts,, graph new,., housing_starts on a national level. The graphs illustrate that there was a sustained increase in housing starts from 1 X91 t© January 2006, It is at this point that there is a downward trend in the graph, indicating a reduction in new housing starts, which translates into a reduction in demand far residential development land. The graph titled Short Term Trend covers the time period from November 2005 to September 2006, with a prof ectian period extending to January 2007, It illustrates a downward trend in the market that peaked in January 2006 and has experienced a continued downward cycle to date. 12 Continental ~pp~aisal Company The graph titled Long Term Trend illustrates the upward trend in housing starts from 19~ 1 to January 2006, at which time the graph indicates the beginning of the contraction. of the housing market. New ~Iousin~ Starts ~ National ^wwnw..wrrrw~~i.ii riru.wr ui~minrirwwwrww wt~~ ~~~o~'#-~~1• T.'~~~ ~~&~~~-~~~'~~ T~'~~H ~~ L`F ~~ ~ - - '~r~T.. ,~ The following, ~rap~h illustrates residential mortgage applications, on a national basis, over the time period. in question. It is noted that in November 2005, December 2005, and January 2006 an the graph that the number of applications was consistent. However, there was a significant drop in February 2006, which remained consistent through October 2006, Residential Mortgage Applications source; NAR I Mc~rfgage Bankers Association 1~ Continental appraisal Company The preceding data indicates a downward trend in the national housing industry that began in the first quarter of 2006, and has continued to the current date of this report. This downward trend is a result of market forces that have had an adverse affect on the marketability and demand for single-family development land. This trend has been further substantiated by a reduction in the sales of single-family residential land in Franklin County, and more specif tally the Dublin submarket. It was recently reported that Dublin based Dominion Homes ended the fourth quarter of 2006 with a 34-million dollar loss for the year. This is compared to a 5.3-million dollar profit for 2045. Although Dominion Homes had some internal problems this past year, much of the loss in 2006 is attributable to the soft housing market conditions. Sales of houses were down 40- percent in 2006. The slowing of the current housing market has caused local developers to put projects that have been in the planning stages an hold, many of which have been withdrawn with no plans to proceed with the project anytime soon. This is a clear sign of the housing market's economic times, with residential development projects being withdrawn and put on hold. A result of the soft market conditions has been a lack of residential development land by developers in the second half of 2x06. This will be discussed in the following section of this report. Summary and Conc~uslon; The local housing market appears to be paralleling the national trends set forth in the previous discussion. The housing market has been in a state of contraction for approximately one year. The data reviewed indicates that the downturn in the residential housing market began in January 2006. It is at this point in time that the supply of existing homes on the market began to increase. It is noted in the chart on page 12 titled Pending Home.,Sales Index, in the column titled Midwest that the PHSI in the Midwest dropped approximately 16% from January 2006 through September 2006. This is an indication that there was a declining trend for homes placed in contract for sale, This reduced demand had a direct affect on the number of new housing starts nationwide, which is illustrated in the graphs presented on page 11 in this report. The decrease in demand for new housing starts translates into a reduced demand for residential development land, which in turn translates into a lack of sales transactions. It is a fact that many of the larger developers scrapped several housing projects that were publicly announced by not exercising options to purchase the land andlor having their projects tabled indefinitely at the planning commissions. This market condition is anticipated to continue into the foreseeable future, which covers the 2007/2405 time period covered by this report. In conclusion, there is no indication that the recovery of the current soft housing market conditions will occur over the next two years. This is considered in the fallowing analysis concerning the apprapria~e unit price per acre for low density single-family development land, in the city of Dublin, from January 2007 to through December 240$, 14 Continental.~ppraisal Company AVERAGE UNIT PRICE ANALYSIS In prior reports, an estimate of an average unit price per acre that is applicable for the city of Dublin has been the result of assemblage and analysis of current market data recent land sales}. In addition, a linear regression analysis was also completed in prior reports that used sales data from f©rmer reports in conjunction with the recently assembled data to provided support, from a market trend line basis, which allowed for a forecast into the near future, on a straight-line basis. Both methodologies were correlated at the end of the report, and provided the basis upon which my recommendation of an average pace per acre, for raw residential development land, to be applicable for the respective two-year period, was made, far purpose of analysis, the City of Dublin has been divided into five separate zones over the years, which are identified as: Northeast, Northwest, Central, Southeast, and Southwest. A map of the various zones is presented below, and a discussion, which relates to each of the sections follows. The five separate zones, identified as: Northeast, Northwest, Central, Southeast, and Southwest, are color coded. Northeast Zone: The Northeast zone is the portion of Dublin located east of the Scioto River, west of Sawmill Road, and north of I-27o. It includes all of the incorporated area of the City of I]ublin within this delineated area. Residential development along the Sawmill Road corridor, north of I-27o, has been limited in past years. The most recent new single-family development activity has been area is along either Hard Road or Summitview Road, where newer subdivisions have been completed in recent years,. There has not been any subdivision development in this area subsequent to the February 2005 report. No land sales were found during the market investigation in this section of the city. As of the date of this report, a large retail commercial 15 Continental.~ppraisal Company development was recently completed at the northwest corner of Hard Road and Sawmill Road, which adds to the supporting neighborhood and community retail commercial, in this area. From a historical standpoint, the residential development trend for the Northeast district has been slow. Subsequent to the previous report, no land sales were found in the market investigation in this district that met the market data parameters. Northwest Zone; This section is located west of the Scioto River, north and west of I-270, and north and east of Route 3 3. Historically this area has been the most active area for residential development of all of the five areas in the Dublin market. It continues to be the largest and an active residential development area within the corporate limits of Dublin, The primary area of residential development, in the Northwest area, is located at the northwestern fringe of the Dublin Corporate limits, where Franklin, Delaware, and Union Counties meet. This area has utilities available or within reasonable proximity for extension. From a residential development standpoint, the Northwest section of Dublin, situated in Franklin County, is maturing. New residential development in this portion of the district has been dominated by production builders. It is noted that the most recent development has taken place in the AverylBrand Road area, whereby much of the ground was acquiredlassembled several years ago. The City of Dublin has recently expanded into both Delaware County and Union County, These are the areas of new growth in the Northwest section of Dublin. A continued trend of northwest growth, in the Dublin area, is expected to continue, as dictated by market area demand. Subsequent to the previous report, no land sales were found in the market investigation in this district that met the market data parameters. f Pntral The Central Area of Dublin is bound by the Scioto River on the east, by Hayden Run Road on the south and by I-270 on the west and north. This area continues to be an area of more moderate residential growth, with the most recent activity-taking place in the vicinity of Dublin and Tuttle Roads. Property uses in this area continues to be predominantly office and retail commercial development, with some existing older residential. The majority of residential land in this ~.rea is developed. In the market investigation no suitable sales were found in the Central district. Due to the predominant property use in this district, and lack of market data, it historically has exerted no influence on the average unit value estimate in this analysis. This continues to be true in this analysis, ~n~ithPa~t The Southeast section of Dublin's corporate area is bordered on the west by the Scioto River, on the north by I-270, and on the east by Sawmill Road. The predominant development in the area is commercial, concentrated along the Sawmill Road corridor, extending from I-270 to just south of State Route 161. There has been a limited amount of single-family residential development in this sector, Therefore, this sector has limited influence on the estimated average unit price per acre for residential development land. No land sales were found during the market investigation in this section of the city. I6 Continental appraisal Company Southwest: The Southwest area is bordered on the north by Route 33 and on the east by ~-270. with the development of the Tuttle Roadll-270 interchange and the new Emerald Parkway, this sector became an active growth area in Dublin. The Southwest area is anticipated to continue as a growth area in the City of Dublin, as dictated by market demand. This area has ample development land available. However, no sales were found in the market investigation for the years 2005, 2006, or 2007, which is assumed to be indicative of the overall housing market contraction. ~f the five districts previously described, the Northwest area has been the most active for single-family development, followed by the Northeast and Southwest areas. This is evidenced by the fact that of the 20 land sales that were assembled over the past 7-years 1998 to 2004] that meet the parameters of this analysis, 50% are located in the Northwest area, 20% are located in the Southwest area, 25% are located in the northeast section, and 5% is located in the southeast section. Therefore, the average unit price per acre, indicated by the data, has been weighted toward the areas that are the most active areas of development. The Central and Southeast districts have limited potential for future residential development. This provides a historical perspective, which was considered in the analysis. A review of the data presented in the prior reports dated December 2000, March 2003, and the Februa 2005 was made. The market data used in these reports were all assembled within the same parameters. Considering the fact that the purpose of each respective report is to establish an average unit price, and that the historical and current market data were assembled under the same parameters, a database dating back approximately 7-years was compiled, from which historical average value trends could be established. It was noted in the market investigation that the average unit price for raw development land in the city of Dublin continued to increase, over the years. The chart presented on the following page illustrates an upward trend in the average unit price per acre, from a historical standpoint. 1t indicates an upward trend in unit prices over time, which is illustrated in the graph on the following page. The average unit prices per data set are summarized as follows: • December 2000 Report - $34,995Acre • March 2003 Report - $39,1071Acre • February 2005 Report - $41,8831Acre The market data summary chart and graph on the following page summarizes historical market data that ranges over an approximate 6-year period, and includes a total of 20 sales. The graph indicates a historic upward trend for the average price per acre far single-family development land in~~,Dublin over the 6-year period September 1998 -~ August 2004, at a compound rate of 2.1 % per year. 1t is observed that the weight of the data is between the $33,000 and $42,000 per acre, with a nominal increase over the 7-year period. The data that makes up this range is considered typical raw residential development land, representing all the actively developing areas of Dublin. The summarized data indicates an upward trend in the average unit price over the time period specif ed above. The trend line graph illustrates this upward movement of the average unit price per acre. 17 Cantine~tal.A~praisal C©mpany Market Da#a Summa chart and Trend Line Gra h LOCATION SIDE SALE SALE PRICE STREET ZONE ZONING NACRES PRICE DATE ER ACRE AVERYIBRAND NW PLR 46.6 ~ 1.,946,008 ~'eb-99 $ 41,771 ~~ °" '~ AVERY~BRAND NW PLR 85,5 $ 3,323,655 Jan-00 $ 38,855 AVERYIBRAND NW PUD 3L9 $ 1,2.42,000 Sep-98 ~ 38,913 c~ ~ AVERYIBRAND NW R-1 68.7 2,380,595 Jul-99 ~ 34,645 RIVERSIDE DR NE R-1 18,2 $ 650,000 Sep-98 $ 35,714 A AVERY SW ~ R1-B 1.8.2. $ 700,000 Apr-99' 38,398 COSGRAY SW PLR 591 ~ 19,856,768 Se -00 ~ 33,583 HARD ROAD NE PUD 35.8 ~ 1,800,000 Feb-02 $ 50,260 TUTTLEIDUBLIN SW PLR 25.8 ~ 760,000 Aug-01 $ 29,428 ~ COSGRAY~tINGS SW R 3L2 $ 1,298,805 Nov-01 ~ 41,606 N BRANDICOFFNIAN NW R-11SR 18.6 $ 900 000 Feb-02 $ 48 49 MCKRITRICR NW PUD 51.9 $ , 1,941,800 Sep-02 $ , 37,398 ~ HYLAND CROP NW R 30.5 ~ 951,100 Aug-02 $ 31,184 HYLAND CROP NW R 51.7 ~ 1,949,000 Dec-00 $ 37,.709 May- a SUMMITVIEW NE PLR b5.50 $ 2,618,200 03 $ 40,000 c HARD ROAD NE R-1 33.10 $ 1,900,000 NTar-04 ~ 57,402 ~ HARD ROAD NE R-1 43.00 $ 2,783,936 Aug-D4 $ 64,7$8 TULLERIVIL. PKWY SE R-1 26.30 1,013,250 Jan-04 $ 38,559 JEROME ROAD NW R 57.30 $ 2,000,000 Jun-04 $ 34,886 ~" HYLAND CROP NW PUD 157.00 $ 5 684 091 A r-04 $ 36 204 SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS TRENDLINE SIX YEAR PERIOD - 9198 - 8104 '~~i~D OO _ __ ~~OC~O - X1,00 _. ii ,'~''~ , • ~0~~ ~ . ~y~y r~yi.~Jt 1 _ ^ ^ . ,~y~y~+y ~~~ ~ i r r -" i ^ ~ ,v hw. *w~~.rr ~inv ~~w ~~~+a+.wrr ~i+~. °~ ~ ~~ii~.+arr ~ ,R~ y~r ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~E'r~.r. S.~Y ' ~ i. h~.F ~.I 1$ Continental appraisal Company The trend line graph on the preceding page indicates that a continued upward prvgressian in recent years of the average unit price per acre far residential development land, in the city of Dublin. This projection is made H a straight line basis, which would assume that all market conditions remained the same, Dn this premise, the unit price applicable in this most recent analysis is in the mid forty thousand dc~ll~rs per acre range, However, as indicated earlier in this report, the market conditions for the housing market locally, regionally, and nationally, shifted and began a state of cantractian in the first quarter of 2006, It is for this reason that the trend line prvjectivn far 2007 and 2008 is erroneous, based an the summarized historical data assembled from 1998 to 2005. As previously stated, the objective of this analysis is not to conclude to a specific unit value (unit price per acres rather it is to project an appropriate unit value per acre that could be applied throughout the Dublin market area, for the two-year period 2vv7 and 2008. A market investigation was made for recent land sales that meet the criteria established in the city ordnance, After a thorough search of the subj ect market area, nv sales data were found that met the parameters necessary in this analysis, Pram which a comparative analysis could be made that were situated in within the Dublin Corporate limits. A large part of the lack of market data is attributed to the soft housing market that began in the first part of 2006. From a historical standpoint, recent land value trends for low density single-family develapment land ranged from approximately $35,000 per acre to a high of $64,000 per acre in the Dublin submarket. These extremes reflect land values on the fringe of the Dublin Corporate line to infill locations in developed areas. The low end of this range is bracketed by development land situated on the far northwest side of the city of Dublin. The upper end of the range is bracketed by development land situated along Hard. Road, which has superior physical and locational attributes when compared to other development land in the city of Dublin, It is the appraiser's opinion that the data brackets the extremes, with regard to unit values for residential development land in the city of Dublin. In a comparative analysis 3 land sales have been assembled, analyzed, and presented. The market data used in the fallowing analysis represents all transactions of single-family residential development land, which meet the parameters previously set forth that occurred subsequent to the February 2005 report. This data is summarized in the following chart, and individual sales summary sheets are presented on the following pages, Map Nv. street f f , ~ District Zvn~ng Acres . :Sale Pace ~.Jnit Dade Price 1 Gosgray Sw TND 53.32 $2,199,450 9123105 $ 4 x,250 Z ~osgray ~w Res, 39964 $1,629981 1014106 $ 40,784 .3.+. ~ Rings .Road _ _ Sw .Rural 49,983 . $ 2,149,269 , far-06 . $ 43,000 In the preceding summary chart, the sales used in this statistical analysis indicate an overall average unit price of $41,731 per acre. 19 ~`ontinen~al Appraisal ~`ompany LANI] SALL Nfl. ~ Location: Northeast corner of Hayden Run Road and Cosgray Road. This property abets to sale No. 2, Grantor; Rings Farm LTD Grantee: Dominion Homes Parcel lumber: 010-2?7S 14 Date of Sale: September 23, 2005 Sale Price: X2,199,450 Size: 53320 Acres Shape; Generally Rectangular Utilities; Public Topography: Generally Level-to Rolling Zoning TND-Traditional Neighborhood Highest and best Use: Residential Development Sale Price Per Acre; $41,250 .~~y~tiY.,.. ;~, ;~a __ ~ ~- 1 ~.~~ ~; ~ ~ ~ '~ 8 ~ ~~ •; yyF' $ ' 3 .. ~ .. J i ~ ~ ~` 4 `,.,, r- ~` k^~~` CRY ~' y~~Y}~~3,~ i ~ 4 7 (~ ~ ~qq ~ ~ ~ ~. } # ~ ~ ~ fi ] ~ ~ } _ E , ~ `~ ~ F 4 ? rl' ~:. ,~, '~ ,~,.(~ ~ ,~ ' } ~ ~ ~ ~~ 3 ( F i 1 . ~ ~~ :`;e ~ #~ ~ ~ ~? `t ~; 1 E .,...... .. 1 ~~ 6 ~~ ~~ I F t# <[A ~,'. i i .. ,. ,. • 'b L: ,, 1 `. ~~ 6 F ." ~`,.' ~`ontinental ~p~raisal ~`ompany LAND SALE NG. Z Location: Northeast comer of Cosgray Road and Hayden Run Load. This properly is a part of the assemblage of Land Sale No.1. Grantor; Rings Farms Ltd. Grantee: Dominion Homes Inc Parcel Number: ~ alo-2~5~36 Date a~ Sale: October 4, 2~Oa6 Sale Price: $1,+~~9,5~1 Size: 39,94 Acres Shape: Irregular Utilities: Public Topography: Level to Rollingl Wooded Ravine Zoning Residential highest and Best Use: Residential Development Sale Price Per Acre: ~4~,7~4 21 Continental.~4ppraisal ~`ompany LAND SALL NU. 3 Location: South of Rings Road, east side of Richard dams Township Road, north of Hayden Run Road. Grantor: Grantee: Parcel Identification Number: Date of Sale: Sale Price: Size: Shape: Utilities: Access: Topography: Zoning I~ighest and Best Use: Sale Price Per Acre: Amanda Helmuth, Trustee ~ominlon Homes 4SS~277309 March 16, 200 $~,149,~69 49.983 Acres Generally Rectangular No Richard Iams Township Road Level to Rolling Rural Residential Development ~~~,ooo z~ Cont~nentar appraisal Company Comparable Sales Location MaQ ~.; ~ ~ ~I E~ ~~ ; I ~ R ~~. tR" ~ 1~~~ .. ~., .... 7.1 . ; ~... .... .1 . . , .... ,.., gym) .~+..._.. ff .~,1 ~ __ w ~ ~.amb Garners ~ ,f~$~ ~ ~ ~ ,.: 1k~ ~~~` ~ I '~: p i ) S4 {F4 ': r~1~J ry, 4 ~ ! ~y~. . ~ f i' A s '~k _~ '' '°~,~. 1~ ~P~~k_.- ~w _~ '~~ Aml~~n l~~~~ ,, i ; ~ ~7, ~ ~, `., ,-~ ' E ~ ~ i ~ ~ . •, ~ `e~ , ~ ~~ X11 a 514 : ~ ~ ' , ~l _-~.. .... `•LI ~ j_ ',; Cam~areble lend ~ele #~ .,~ __ tit ; .`~ ;i 4i k ~'~ ~am~arable ~en~ ~e~e # 1 ~ ~4t; '~ ~ ~~ ~E rt ' S~, ~~C1 Ares 3,~ Haden ~~ ~~ ~, ' . E 1 ` ~ ' ~~ S~-~ 'i3 ill _ ~ ~~`*, ,` ~. f ~a ~I ~~ ~~ 9 _~ ~`y "` 4 S~} '1, ~ Utz 4~~~ r' .~. ' :r' ~- t I, ~ _ ~~-~-~ ~ r ~~~ ~~` i ~ :~ `€ ~ ii 'A r ~ Y.~ ~,~ ~- ~ ~ ' ~I ` I 1',`e ~,`. Gam ere~le l~an~ ~~1e #~ ,~ , , ~ ~ r . ~. m ~ ~ . .f ~~,~~4 I~~re~ ~~,~~~ acres `~ ~ ~~~ .~ ,~ ~ . ~....r` ~ t ~ .::~ .~{~ -z.'.'t-'~' i` ~~ ,.e_ ~~ ~ _ fir' ~' r ~ ~ '`~~ ~ ~~ ~~.- ~.~_. ,, ,ry ~'~ ~~..~ ~. ',~~. t~^y I'. The three sales summarized in this section of the report are located in very close proximity to the southern most point of the Dublin corporate line, and is considered directly competitive with residential development land found in the Sw quadrant of the Dublin area. For this 2~ Continental.~ppraisal Company reason, it is the appraiser's opinion that the three sales previously summarized are relevant in this analysis. In determining an average unit price per acre estimate for development land in the City of Dublin, to be effective for the years 2007-2005, the appraiser considered all available market data. However, the most significant factor affecting the average unit price in the Dublin submarket is the weak housing market. Due to the lack of demand for housing units, there is currently no demand for residential development land. There is no indication that this will change aver the next 22-months, The housing market is presently going through a period of market adjustment. For this reason, it is not reasonable to assume that the unit price per acre of residential development land in the city of Dublin would continue to increase as it has in recent years. The demand for residential development land is restricted due to the current market conditions. Due to the discount a developer would have to apply to the purchase price of residential development land to recognize the cost to carry the property during the soft market conditions, and to recognize the risk inherent in property during these soft market conditions, prudent buyers are holding their property. This is evidenced by the lack of market activity for development land over the past year. The current market conditions have had a stagnating affect on property values. The estimated average unit price per acre for low density single-family development land in Dublin for the two-year time period of 2005 & 200 was $41,500 per acre. This estimate was based on the analysis and conclusions found in the February 2x05 report. Considering the discussion and analysis in this report, it is the opinion of the appraiser that the appropriate average unit price per acre for low density single-family development land in Dublin, for the two-year time period of 2007 & 200$ is X41,500 per acre. This is premised on the fact that the soft market conditions has a stagnating affect on the value of residential development land, and the fact that the single-family housing market is anticipated to remain in its current state throughout the entire two-year period. 24 Continental Appraisal Company C[3RRELATIUN AND C~NCLUSI(]N The data and analysis set forth in this report indicates that the single-family residential housing market is in a state of contraction, which has a stagnating affect on single-family residential development land property values. The preceding comparative analysts provided an average unit price of $41,731 per acre. The three sales that provide this average are located in close proximity to the southern :most corporate limits of Dublin, and are considered directly competitive with development land situated in the southwest zone. The trend line regression analysis indicated that the overall average for residential development land in Dublin continued to increase through 2005. The straight line forecast based on historical data, does not reflect the downturn that occurred in the residential housing market in the first quarter of 2006, For this reason, it is not a reliable indicator to project the appropriate unit price per acre for the Dublin market. Based on the preceding comparativelstatistical analysis, and recognizing that the average unit price per acre estimate is a prospective unit value that is to cover a two year time projection, the appraiser concludes to a suggested price per acre for raw development land within the City of Dublin, for the subsequent two year period, as required under Section 1109.02 of the ordinance of the City of Dublin, of: $41,500 per acre, This average unit value projection considers all the factors previously discussed, FOURTY ONE THOUSAND FIVE HUNDRED (41,500) DOLLARS PER ACRE 25 Continental Appraisal Company PRUFESSIUNAL QUALIFICATIONS OF JOHN M, GARVIN, MAI President of Continental Appraisal Company. Scope of experience includes appraisals, feasibility analysis and consulting for financing, estates, and due diligence support. Valuation and consulting services performed in litigation support for ad valorem tax and condemnation cases. Clients served include law firms, accountants, lenders, utility companies, railroad companies, private clients and public agencies. Education: • Bachelor of Arts Degree , Otterbein College,1984. • Numerous real estate related courses and seminars sponsored by the Appraisal Institute, Columbus Board of Realtors, accredited universities, and others. • Currently certified by the Appraisal Institutes voluntary program of continuing education for it's designated members. Professional Affiliations & Activities: • Member, Appraisal Institute, MAI Designation. • 2007 Vice President, Cardinal Ohio Chapter, Appraisal Institute. • 2006 Secretary, Cardinal Ohio Chapter, Appraisal Institute. • 2003-2006 Member, Board of Directors, Cardinal Chapter, Appraisal Institute. • 2006-Present MAI Admission Chair, Cardinal Ohio Chapter, Appraisal Institute. • Member, International Right-of Way Association ~IRWA). • Member of the Columbus Board of Realtors and National Association of Realtors. • Licensed Real Estate Agent, State of Ohio. • State of Ohio, Certified Real Estate Appraiser, General Appraiser Classification, and Certification No. 381572. Expert Testimony: • Qualif ed as an expert valuation witness before the Ohio State Board of Tax Appeals, and numerous Local Boards of Tax Revision. Experience: • Engaged in appraisal work since 1979, First employed as a part-time research assistant in the valuation of the bankrupt estates conveyed to Conrail. • Fee appraiser since 19$5. • Former Instructor, Real Estate Appraisal. • Valuation experience covers a wide range of property types, including: - Single-Family Res. - Automobile Dealerships - Development Land - Apartments r - Manufacturing Facilities - Agricultural Property - Congregate Care - Office Warehouses - Special Purpose Properties - Assisted Living ~ - Large Distribution Whses - Commercial Buildings - Low Income Housing - Proposed developments - Rail Road Corridors - Office Buildings - Right-of way I Easements - Railroad Surplus Properties - Shopping Centers - Partial Interest Valuation - Utility Corridors 26 Continental ~4~praisal ~ompat~y. APPRAISER DISCLOSURE STATEMENT In compliance with Ohio Revised Code Section 4763.12 (C) ~, Name of Appraiser: ~. Glass of CertificativnlLicensure: Sohn M. Garvin X Certified General Licensed Residential Temporary ~ General Licensed CertificationlLicensure Number: 38~ 5l~ 3. Scope: ~. Service Pr©vided 13y: 5. Signature of person preparing and reporting the appraisal: X is within the scope of my Certification or License Is not within the scope of my Certification or License. ~ Disinterested & Unbiased Third Party Interested & Biased Third Party Interested Third party an Contingent Fee Basis This form must be included in conjunction with all appraisal assignments or specialized services performed by a state-certified arstote-licensed real estate appraiser. ~7 Continental f~ppraisal Company ADDENDUM Zs . ~ RECORD OF ORDINANCES Dayton Legal Blanc Co. Form ~'o. 34Q~3 ~~~c xnance No.......x~.4~:.9.4._.. Pc~ss~cl........... ............................ ... ........~9.....,.. AN DRDxNANCE TO ESTAELISH TxE ESTYMATED f AVERAGE PER ACRE VALUE DF LAND FOR PARR FEES ` ZN LYEU 4F LAND DEDICATION AS REQUIRED PURSUANT TO SECTION l1, 0 9.02 ~ C ~ , AND TD AMEND SAYD SECTION WHEREAS, Section ~.109.D~ of the City of Dublin Codified ordinances requires that an estimated average value of land per acre shah. be established every two years by Council based on the recommendation of a qualified land appraiser; WHEREAS, the Continental Appraisal Company has made a study and is,recommending an updated average per acre value of raw land within the City of Dublin, oha.o; NoWr THEREFORE, fiE YT OR AINED by the Council of the City of Dublin, State of Ohio, of the elected members concurring: Section l . That the estimated per acre va~.ue for raw .and within the City of Dublin, Dhio for use pursuant to the provisions of Section ~.~09 . D2 ~c} ~ ~ ~ of the Dublin Codified ordinance is establ~.shed at ~ Thirty Seven Thousand and No/ ~ D 0 } $37, DOD Dol~.ars, as determ~.ned by the Continental Appraisal Company whose report ~.s hereby accepted. Section 2, That saa.d estimated value per acre shall be applicable for a period of two 2 ears commencin with th e ~ } y g of f ect~.ve date of this ordinance . Section 3. That Section 1~C9~c} is hereby amended to comply wa.th the provisions of this ordinance, section ~; . That this ordinance sha~,~. take effect and be in force from and after the earliest period a~.lowed by law. Passed this ~ ~~"~ day of L~e e em.~o e~ rfAX - PR~SID NG OFFICER A~'~`ESZ' : x.994 . CLERK OF COUNCIL Subdivision regulations Scetian ~5~.072 § ~5~.o~'Z M.AZN~'ENANCE ~~' CENTE~t ~SIJASfDS~ Whenever possible, a note shall be placed on the final plat requiring that the homeowners' association of the subdivision shall maintain any unpaved, landscaped center islands of cul-de-sac streets in accordance with standards as promulgated by the Municipal Engineer. ~'8o Code, § I l o?.OS} ~Crd. 7.93, passed l 4-493} ~~Y.~ ~'~A ~' 1~~aV V~ ~~L { W V~ i. ~ 1~ ~~ ~~-J~ J. f ~A,} This section is nat applicable to pCTD zoned areas, ~} 1Jpon completian of all improvements or posting of appropriate bonds as required by the subdivision regula~ons, the subdivider shall file the final plat at least ten worlti.ng days before the Planning and 7.oning Commission meeting. The f final plat of any por~on of a larger sub~visian, the prelinnl.na.rY plat of which has been approved by the Comnssion, may be submitted for approval. Completion of improvements, or the giving of security therefor, need only cover that anion of the lat for which final F P approval is requested. . ~'SO Code, § 1 lo9.oX} ~4rd. ~7~74, passed 5~6-74} ~ X 52.E S ~ ~PE~ SpA~CE ~Q~; i N'X'S. ~A} ~,artc~ dedicatrarr. Tl~e basic land dedication requirement shall be that 2°~~ of the total gross site area, plus .03 acres per d~ve.lling unit proposed, shall be set aside as open space except that in no case shall the open space requirement exceed 25% of total gross. site area, Such area shall constitute ground suitable for public parks and playground Facilities as reviewed and approved by the plarvc~ing and ~onin~ Commission, upon the zecornmendation of the parks and recreation Committee and the porestry Comzza.ission. ~3} ,~rovisior~s af~riva~e recreatr'an facilities. ~f the resulting land dedication is determined to be of insufficient size or inappropriately located, ar if public ownership and operation of such recreational areas is not feasible, the municipality may request that an applicant plan for the provision of privately financed and owned recreational facilities. Such private park areas shall be not less than 65% of the land area otl~ec~vise required under division ~A} above, provided that such park areas shall be rivately developed P for recreational uses. The applicant slaall be required to indicate; ~l} The proposed size and location of the park area. ~2} The proposal recreational facilities and site improvements to be made. 99 Section 15.0$6 ~ubl~n ~ hand CJsage ~3} A schedule indicating haw actual construction of the proposed park and improvements are '~~ to be phased in relationship to overall project phasing. (4} how both ownership and maintenance of such park areas is to be undertaken. (C} Park fee. Should bath previous options be deemed inappropriate or infeasible, the munici ali p ~ may request an applicant to pay a park fee in lieu of land dedication. The per unit fee will be collected at the time final plat approval is requested and shall be based on the total number of units contained within the final plat as determined by using the fallowing formula: (1) Total site gross acreage (2) Required land donation: (1) x .02. ~3} Total number of dwelling units ~ ' a (4} required land donation: (3} x .43 (5) Total land donation: (2) + (4) r (6} estimated average value of land per acre shall be established every two years by resolution of Council based upon the recommendation of a qualified land appraiser retained by the village to research recent re{al estate transactions and provide Council with a suggested price per acre for raw land tivithin the city. (7) Value of land donation: (6) x (5) (8) Per unit park fee: (7) dividers by (3) ~]} ~esiderltiar dti~elling ~tcrtxts whic~r are trot constructed as part of a pranrred unit development ~or subdivision. ~n those instances where zesidential dwelling units are constructed not as' a part of a subdivision or' planned unit development, each such residential dwelling unit sha11 pay such fee 'as deternu'ned by the park fee formula in division (C}hereof, except that in no event shall such calculated fee exceed $5ti4 per each residential dwelling unit, zegazdless of total acrea e involved. ~~ g (~} use of fee, All fees shall be ~~sed solel for the a uisition of recreational facili sites a n s~ ace Y ~. tY ~ ~ p andlor parkland. None of the fees collected pursuant to this section may be used far any other purpose including but nit limited to develop~xae~~t,maintenance and a ration of such ublicl owned recreational ~ P Y sites and facilities. ~} .Deposit of fees. All fee money collected under this section shall be placed in a separate fund to be entitled lZecreatian fee 1{und. 1flQ ~ . Subdivision regulations Section X52,87 ~G} ~Prohiblcian. ~l} No certif sate of zoning compliance for the con~tructivn of a residence shall be issued unless and until the fee provided for in this section is paid. (2} No person, frnm or corporation shah receive or be entitled to receive the certificate of zoning compliance for the car~struction of a residence struchue unless and until the fee provided for in this section is paid on each such certificate of zoning, compliance issued. ~3} Nothing contained in this section shall relieve or be interpreted as relieving any person, fum or corporation from complying with all other ordinances, laws, Hiles, regulations of the municipality or of any other governmental agency where they are now in force or hereafter enacted, regulating and governing the issuance of building permits for the constzuction of residence structures in the municipality. ~H} .~~`ectrve perr'ad. The fee imposed by this section shall be levied, collected and paid concurrently with all certificate of zoning compliance applications for residential property on and after June ~, I9$ l . ~'SO Cade, § l 1 D9.o2} fiord. 228 1, passed 5-4-$ l; Am. ord. 36-86, passed 6-2-$6; Am. ord. 8292, passed 6-l ~92} § xs~.os~ ~~ ~a~~zc~.TZO~v ~o~~v~rczrA~zT~~s ~o~.TZO~r o~ ~c~~TZO~~ ~AC~zT~cs. ~A} Zand dedrea~r"on. In addition to the land dedicated for parks and playground facilities under § 152.0$6, for a residential subdivision., planned unit development or a subdivision containing residential living units, an amount of land equal to .025 acres per residential or dwelling unit proposed, shall be dedicated as a site for the purpose set forth in division ~B}above, except that in no case shall the site exceed 25°/a of the total gross site area. .. . ~} Use of land. The municipality shall use property acquired hereunder for parks, playgrounds, gymnasiums, s~vimmi.ng pools, indoor recreation centers, ox other public purposes. Such property maybe used in connection wztia a school building ox school premises operated by the Board of education of the Dublin i.,ocal School District, and will be dedicated ono caseby case basis. Nothing intlLis section shall prevent any such parks and recreational facilities from being jointly acquired, operated and maintained by the municipality and floe Board of ~ducation of the DublinLacal Schools, if both parties so agree, ~C} ~'acilr~}~ site fce. Zf tlxe resulti~~g land dedication for a recreation site is deternllned to be of ins~~fficient size, inappropriately located, or for any other reason the municipality determines it does not need such land,.tl~e applicant shall pay a recreation site fee in lieu of a land dedication under this section. The fee shall be used far the purpose set forth in division ~}below. 101